Why future of India is actually in hands of Bharat

Although while talking of future of India most people talk about importance of MSMEs, Developing Industrial Zones and Business Centers, Entrepreneurship, Farmers, Rural India, Skill Development and Startups, migration and reverse migration; Most people fail to recognize that there is a group of similar minded people who have tried and succeeded to a certain extent in Business (read Organized, incorporated Business run professionally or not). What I propose is to enable exponential growth of this group. And, this growth will fuel the a sustainable future of India.

Last Updated: December 8th 2018

1. Urbanization

Future of India – Urbanization [Data Source: Government of Iindia Census 2011]

Clearly, Urban population has grown exponentially while growth in the number of towns and urban centers has not been able to catch up. Despite all the urbanization, share of growth in urban population to total population has been lower than both the growth in urban population and growth in urban centers. This says a lot but just try to comprehend these three points:

    • A large part of Indian population does not want to be urbanized willingly
    • The required amount of public investment and expenditure in following an anti-urban strategy and how will it compare to an urbanization strategy
  • Are there sustainable roadmaps which enable self sustainable anti-urban strategy?
Parameter 2001 2012
Urban Population 286 Million 390 Million
Urban Centers 35 53
Annual exponential growth rate 2.74% 2.76%
Urban population increase attributed to national increase 45% 60%
Urban population increase attributed to other factors 55% 40%

Key Takeaway: In order to reverse urbanization (What it is today) within the next 50 years, it is imperative to focus on reversing inter-state migration (due to earning capability). That is to say, any person should be able to earn whatever he/she wants irrespective of the location (at least within India).

2. Trade & Commerce

Let us first define a state. An Indian geographical area divided for administrative and other purposes bound as one by non-geographical boundaries. Now, reconsider a “State” only as pure group of people and consider this group as one. Therefore, seeing a state as a large group of people call it “State_of_P”. This is our new definition of State. This State_of_P can earn in following ways:

  • Exports

Exports being direct exports to countries outside India, In-direct exports to other countries and exports to other States_of_P (States in General). Such definition forces us to do the following:

  • It increases the focus on self reliability of a State in terms of generating income and thus its people
  • Frame policies in a different way
  • Has direct implication on anti-urbanization, reverse migration and future of India
Future of India - State Exports (Figure Source: Economic Survey 2017 - 18, Government of India)
Future of India – State Exports (Figure Source: Economic Survey 2017 – 18, Government of India)

Economic Survey 2016-17, for the first time incorporated data on interstate trade. This subject was explored for the first time. The data for this exploration has a bearing on the Goods and Services tax. Last year this data threw some important facts.

This years’ Economic Survey 2017-18, Suggests that states that export more internationally, and trade more with other states, tend to be richer. But the correlation is stronger between prosperity and international trade.

 Key Takeaway: In order for people of India to foster it is imperative to have export oriented businesses in every Indian state.

Overall Takeaway: Future of India will depend on Businessmen turned Business Leaders residing in Non-metro locations.